Overview

We forecast 36 gubernatorial elections using the mathematical modeling approach introduced here and applied to the 2020 elections here. Our forecasts are probabilistic: we simulate our model 10,000 times and calculate the mean vote margins across our simulated elections. For more information, code, and references, click here.


For the gubernatorial elections, we forecast the most competitive states individually and aggregate all the other states into safe red or safe blue "superstates", in which we forecast the mean vote margins. Click below to expand the breakdown of our individual (swing) states and superstates.

State Categorizations
Swing states (14-15 total)
  • Arizona (AZ)
  • Colorado (CO)
  • Connecticut (CT)
  • Florida (FL)
  • Georgia (GA)
  • Kansas (KS)
  • Maine (ME)
  • Michigan (MI)
  • Minnesota (MN)
  • Nevada (NV)
  • New Mexico (NM)
  • Oregon (OR)
  • Pennsylvania (PA)
  • Texas (TX) - after Nov. 6
  • Wisconsin (WI)
 
We forecast the vote margin in each of these states individually.
Red superstate (14-15 total)
  • Alabama (AL)
  • Alaska (AK)*
  • Arkansas (AR)
  • Idaho (ID)
  • Iowa (IA)
  • Nebraska (NE)
  • New Hampshire (NH)
  • Ohio (OH)
  • Oklahoma (OK)
  • South Carolina (SC)
  • South Dakota (SD)
  • Tennessee (TN)
  • Texas (TX) - until Nov. 6
  • Vermont (VT)
  • Wyoming (WY)
 
We forecast the mean vote margin across these states.
 
***Alaska is using a rank-choice voting system. We forecast this race as part of our red superstate but do not include Alaska polling data in our forecast.
Blue superstate (7 total)
  • California (CA)
  • Hawaii (HI)
  • Illinois (IL)
  • Maryland (MD)
  • Massachusetts (MA)
  • New York (NY)
  • Rhode Island (RI)
 
We forecast the mean vote margin across these states.
Our Final Gubernatorial Forecast: November 7, 2022

The outcome of each of the 10,000 elections that we simulate is different, because we include some noise based on state demographics. To get a better sense of how uncertain elections are, you can spin the wheel below to pick one random election outcome that came out of our model. What outcome will the election wheel give you this time? By spinning the wheel multiple times, you'll see different outcomes that our model thinks are possible.


Elections are uncertain, and our forecasts are probabilistic. Click the gold button below to spin the wheel and see what simulated election outcome the wheel lands on.

Map of US with states all in gray, to be filled in with different colors (shades of red and blue) based on the election outcome randomly sampled  



Our most recent forecast of the 2022 U.S. gubernatorial elections uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on November 5, 2022. The average vote margins in each state across all 10,000 of our simulated elections are shown here. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 17.9681 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 18.8772 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 3.6074 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 12.2569 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Connecticut by a margin of 10.7871 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 4.4002 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Georgia by a margin of 5.4313 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Kansas by a margin of 2.2144 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Maine by a margin of 9.4661 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Michigan by a margin of 15.1525 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Minnesota by a margin of 7.6528 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 1.2086 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Mexico by a margin of 4.7946 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Oregon by a margin of 0.21695 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 9.9571 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Texas by a margin of 7.9602 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 2.9097 percentage points.
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the gubernatorial races


Prior Forecasts
You can access earlier forecasts that we made for the 2022 gubernatorial elections by clicking the links below to expand the page.
 
October 26, 2022



Our forecast uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on October 20, 2022. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

 

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
                  We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 10.0354 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 18.8726 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 3.4052 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 13.0925 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Connecticut by a margin of 9.3089 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 4.1603 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Republican outcome in Georgia by a margin of 5.2422 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Kansas by a margin of 1.6516 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Maine by a margin of 10.62 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Michigan by a margin of 15.3424 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Minnesota by a margin of 7.0196 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 1.475 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Mexico by a margin of 6.1132 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Oregon by a margin of 0.57138 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 8.8517 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 3.6393 percentage points.
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the gubernatorial races

 
October 21, 2022



Our forecast uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on October 16, 2022. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

 

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
                  We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 10.3549 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 19.395 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 3.0577 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 12.9127 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Connecticut by a margin of 9.051 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 2.8998 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Republican outcome in Georgia by a margin of 5.2324 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Kansas by a margin of 1.6592 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Maine by a margin of 10.6582 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Michigan by a margin of 15.2072 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Minnesota by a margin of 7.2514 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 1.3054 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Mexico by a margin of 6.0998 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Republican outcome in Oregon by a margin of 0.56257 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 9.0771 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 3.6228 percentage points.
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the gubernatorial races

 
October 17, 2022



Our forecast uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on October 12, 2022. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

 

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 10.358 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 19.2219 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 4.3304 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 12.9648 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Connecticut by a margin of 11.5645 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 2.8547 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in Georgia by a margin of 5.5941 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Kansas by a margin of 1.8098 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Maine by a margin of 10.4827 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Michigan by a margin of 16.7626 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Minnesota by a margin of 7.2503 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 1.2968 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Mexico by a margin of 6.0869 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Oregon by a margin of 0.046901 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 9.4564 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 3.2396 percentage points.
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the gubernatorial races

 
October 13, 2022



Our forecast uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on October 5, 2022. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

 

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 10.6108 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 19.6703 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 5.1318 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 11.6889 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Connecticut by a margin of 10.5887 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 2.43 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in Georgia by a margin of 4.6367 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Kansas by a margin of 1.886 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Maine by a margin of 10.1828 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Michigan by a margin of 18.4973 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Minnesota by a margin of 7.0969 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 1.7323 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Mexico by a margin of 4.9852 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in Oregon by a margin of 0.05977 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 9.3218 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 3.6413 percentage points.
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the gubernatorial races

 
October 5, 2022



Our forecast uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on September 30, 2022. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

 

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 10.6333 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 20.0145 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 4.7942 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 12.4826 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Connecticut by a margin of 10.933 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 1.972 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in Georgia by a margin of 4.607 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Kansas by a margin of 1.8297 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Maine by a margin of 9.5361 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Michigan by a margin of 18.9766 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Minnesota by a margin of 7.2289 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 2.2258 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Mexico by a margin of 5.3178 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Oregon by a margin of 0.9335 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 8.6694 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 4.0568 percentage points.
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the gubernatorial races

 
September 28, 2022



Our forecast uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on September 25, 2022. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

 

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 10.6333 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 20.0145 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 4.7942 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 12.4826 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Connecticut by a margin of 10.933 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 1.972 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in Georgia by a margin of 4.607 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Kansas by a margin of 1.8297 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Maine by a margin of 9.5361 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Michigan by a margin of 18.9766 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Minnesota by a margin of 7.2289 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 2.2258 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Mexico by a margin of 5.3178 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Oregon by a margin of 0.9335 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 8.6694 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 4.0568 percentage points.
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the gubernatorial races

 
September 21, 2022



Our forecast uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on September 19, 2022. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

 

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 9.8198 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 19.9318 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 4.4347 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 9.4388 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Connecticut by a margin of 8.192 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 2.5439 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in Georgia by a margin of 3.7703 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Kansas by a margin of 5.0094 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Maine by a margin of 10.3895 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Michigan by a margin of 17.0758 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Minnesota by a margin of 7.8922 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 2.0681 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Mexico by a margin of 5.3178 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Oregon by a margin of 0.74172 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 8.2943 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 4.0251 percentage points.
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the gubernatorial races

 
September 13, 2022



Our forecast uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on September 11, 2022. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

 

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 10.9008 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 20.1534 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 5.754 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 10.7361 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Connecticut by a margin of 8.6883 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 1.2316 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Georgia by a margin of 4.974 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Kansas by a margin of 2.7973 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Maine by a margin of 4.6236 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Michigan by a margin of 20.3308 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Minnesota by a margin of 8.4104 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 3.4244 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Mexico by a margin of 3.8338 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Oregon by a margin of 1.4408 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 6.7535 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 4.4807 percentage points.
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the gubernatorial races

 
September 10, 2022



Our forecast uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on September 8, 2022. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

 

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 10.9008 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 20.1534 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 5.754 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 10.7361 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Connecticut by a margin of 8.6883 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 1.2316 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Georgia by a margin of 4.974 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Kansas by a margin of 2.7973 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Maine by a margin of 4.6236 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Michigan by a margin of 20.3308 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Minnesota by a margin of 8.4104 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 3.4244 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Mexico by a margin of 3.8338 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Oregon by a margin of 1.4408 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 6.7535 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 4.4807 percentage points.
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the gubernatorial races

 
September 8, 2022



Our forecast uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on September 5, 2022. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

 

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 11.4628 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 19.9839 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 5.5089 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 10.6759 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Connecticut by a margin of 8.9662 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 1.673 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Georgia by a margin of 5.0608 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Kansas by a margin of 2.8624 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Maine by a margin of 4.5615 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Michigan by a margin of 20.0682 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Minnesota by a margin of 4.0594 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 3.2532 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Mexico by a margin of 3.6468 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Oregon by a margin of 3.7011 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 6.5983 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 4.4386 percentage points
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the gubernatorial races

 
September 1, 2022



Our forecast uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on August 24, 2022. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

 

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 11.5813 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 20.4069 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 7.0042 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 10.0211 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Connecticut by a margin of 8.7321 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 2.6414 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Georgia by a margin of 4.8544 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Kansas by a margin of 2.7032 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Maine by a margin of 4.6074 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Michigan by a margin of 20.2062 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Minnesota by a margin of 4.0975 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 3.269 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Mexico by a margin of 3.0232 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Oregon by a margin of 3.8345 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 6.0648 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 4.9779 percentage points.
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the gubernatorial races