Overview

We forecast 35 senatorial elections using the mathematical modeling approach introduced here and applied to the 2020 elections here. Our forecasts are probabilistic: we simulate our model 10,000 times and calculate the mean vote margins across our simulated elections. For more information, code, and references, click here.


For the senatorial elections, we forecast the most competitive states individually and aggregate all the other states into safe red or safe blue "superstates", in which we forecast the mean vote margins. Click below to expand the breakdown of our individual (swing) states and superstates.

State Categorizations
Swing states (11 total)
  • Arizona (AZ)
  • Colorado (CO)
  • Florida (FL)
  • Georgia (GA)
  • Nevada (NV)
  • New Hampshire (NH)
  • North Carolina (NC)
  • Ohio (OH)
  • Pennsylvania (PA)
  • Utah (UT)
  • Wisconsin (WI)
 
We forecast the vote margin in each of these states individually.
 
**We treat the Independent candidate as a Democratic candidate in the Utah Senate election.
Red superstate (15 total)
  • Alabama (AL)
  • Alaska (AK)**
  • Arkansas (AR)
  • Idaho (ID)
  • Indiana (IN)
  • Iowa (IA)
  • Kansas (KS)
  • Kentucky (KY)
  • Louisiana (LA)***
  • Missouri (MO)
  • North Dakota (ND)
  • Oklahoma (OK)
  • Oklahoma Special (OK*)
  • South Carolina (SC)
  • South Dakota (SD)
 
We forecast the mean vote margin across these states.
 
**Alaska is using a rank-choice voting system. We forecast this race as part of our red superstate but do not include Alaska polling data in our forecast.
 
***Louisiana has a jungle primary system. We forecast this race as part of our red superstate but do not include Louisiana polling data in our forecast.
Blue superstate (9 total)
  • California Special (CA*)
  • Connecticut (CT)
  • Hawaii (HI)
  • Illinois (IL)
  • Maryland (MD)
  • Ney York (NY)
  • Oregon (OR)
  • Vermont (VT)
  • Washington (WA)
 
We forecast the mean vote margin across these states.
Our Final Senatorial Forecast: November 7, 2022

The outcome of each of the 10,000 elections that we simulate is different, because we include some noise based on state demographics. To get a better sense of how uncertain election results are, you can spin the election wheel below to pick one random election outcome that came out of our model. What outcome will the election wheel give you this time? By spinning the wheel multiple times, you'll see different outcomes that our model thinks are possible.


Elections are uncertain, and our forecasts are probabilistic. Click the gold button below to spin the wheel and see what simulated election outcome the wheel lands on.

Map of US with states all in gray, to be filled in with different colors (shades of red and blue) based on the election outcome randomly sampled  



Our most recent forecast of the 2022 U.S. senatorial elections uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on November 5, 2022. The average vote margins in each state across all 10,000 of our simulated elections are shown here. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 13.6606 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 21.3064 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 9.4568 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 9.4285 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 5.2743 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Georgia by a margin of 2.4505 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 2.632 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Hampshire by a margin of 5.1091 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in North Carolina by a margin of 1.0054 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Ohio by a margin of 2.1689 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 7.2823 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Utah by a margin of 8.2746 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 0.63779 percentage points.
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the senatorial races


Prior Forecasts
You can access earlier forecasts that we made for the 2022 senatorial elections by clicking the links below to expand the page.
 
November 3, 2022



Our forecast uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on October 28, 2022. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

 

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
                  We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 10.8712 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 21.1462 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 9.1465 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 9.9811 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 5.3167 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Georgia by a margin of 2.4838 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 2.575 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Hampshire by a margin of 5.5565 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Republican outcome in North Carolina by a margin of 0.96319 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Ohio by a margin of 2.107 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 7.5286 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Republican outcome in Utah by a margin of 6.0729 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 0.63611 percentage points.
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the senatorial races

 
October 26, 2022



Our forecast uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on October 20, 2022. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

 

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
                  We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 10.5843 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 21.4764 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 9.416 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 9.7748 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 4.7432 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Georgia by a margin of 2.8548 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 2.3353 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Hampshire by a margin of 7.2329 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Republican outcome in North Carolina by a margin of 1.2961 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Ohio by a margin of 2.066 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 7.2855 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Republican outcome in Utah by a margin of 6.2205 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 1.1736 percentage points.
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the senatorial races

 
October 21, 2022



Our forecast uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on October 16, 2022. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

 

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
                  We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 10.6424 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 19.344 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 9.5695 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 7.9122 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 4.8225 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Georgia by a margin of 2.9326 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 2.3141 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Hampshire by a margin of 7.3606 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Republican outcome in North Carolina by a margin of 0.23588 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Ohio by a margin of 1.8755 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 7.5319 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Republican outcome in Utah by a margin of 6.0315 percentage points.
                  We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 1.2609 percentage points.
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the senatorial races

 
October 17, 2022



Our forecast uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on October 12, 2022. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

 

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 10.7626 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 19.2916 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 10.5157 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 7.9903 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 4.7597 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Georgia by a margin of 2.5432 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 2.1483 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Hampshire by a margin of 7.1988 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in North Carolina by a margin of 0.24288 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Ohio by a margin of 3.0608 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 8.4483 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in Utah by a margin of 8.1798 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 0.58908 percentage points.
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the senatorial races

 
October 13, 2022



Our forecast uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on October 5, 2022. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

 

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 10.4004 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 17.649 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 10.1006 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 8.473 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 4.5519 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Georgia by a margin of 3.4666 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 2.8024 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Hampshire by a margin of 6.9795 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in North Carolina by a margin of 0.10486 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Ohio by a margin of 3.6962 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 9.0856 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in Utah by a margin of 8.9922 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 0.95262 percentage points.
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the senatorial races

 
October 5, 2022



Our forecast uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on September 30, 2022. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

 

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 10.1797 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 17.3971 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 10.1638 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 8.3238 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 4.5393 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Georgia by a margin of 3.3042 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 2.7856 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Hampshire by a margin of 8.7018 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in North Carolina by a margin of 0.020214 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Ohio by a margin of 2.8311 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 8.4214 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in Utah by a margin of 8.9172 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 1.318 percentage points.
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the senatorial races

 
September 28, 2022



Our forecast uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on September 25, 2022. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

 

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 10.9298 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 18.4868 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 9.9845 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 8.7587 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 4.383 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Georgia by a margin of 3.2565 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 2.7714 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Hampshire by a margin of 8.9219 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in North Carolina by a margin of 0.17264 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Ohio by a margin of 2.6241 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 8.4227 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Republican outcome in Utah by a margin of 9.2362 percentage points.
                            We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 1.4259 percentage points.
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the senatorial races

 
September 21, 2022



Our forecast uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on September 18, 2022. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

 

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 11.1749 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 17.4137 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 9.2199 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 8.2896 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 4.7282 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Georgia by a margin of 4.1469 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 2.7301 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Hampshire by a margin of 9.4421 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in North Carolina by a margin of 0.24822 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Ohio by a margin of 2.338 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 8.3012 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Utah by a margin of 7.15 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 1.1724 percentage points.
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the senatorial races

 
September 13, 2022



Our forecast uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on September 12, 2022. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

 

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 14.5308 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 17.5965 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 9.2491 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 7.8506 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 4.1134 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Georgia by a margin of 0.93336 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 3.65 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Hampshire by a margin of 6.0192 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in North Carolina by a margin of 0.23146 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Ohio by a margin of 2.9925 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 8.4442 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Utah by a margin of 6.1673 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 3.4666 percentage points.
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the senatorial races

 
September 11, 2022



Our forecast uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on September 5, 2022. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

 

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 14.4815 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 17.5766 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 9.2981 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 8.0688 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 4.0821 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Georgia by a margin of 0.89459 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 3.9315 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Hampshire by a margin of 6.156 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in North Carolina by a margin of 0.20796 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Ohio by a margin of 3.5999 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 8.4687 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Utah by a margin of 6.0947 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 3.4494 percentage points.
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the senatorial races

 
September 6, 2022



Our forecast uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on September 5, 2022. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

 

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 14.2452 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 15.638 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 10.903 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 8.7584 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 4.5421 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Georgia by a margin of 2.1837 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 3.0588 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Hampshire by a margin of 5.5764 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in North Carolina by a margin of 0.15441 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Ohio by a margin of 2.5715 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 8.5956 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Utah by a margin of 10.9023 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 3.1797 percentage points.
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the senatorial races

 
September 1, 2022



Our forecast uses polling data that we downloaded from FiveThirtyEight on August 30, 2022. For many states, the yellow band region, which indicates where the middle 80% of our simulated election results fall, contains both Republican and Democratic outcomes.

 

Description of bar graph diagram showing vote margins:
We forecast a Republican outcome in the Red superstate by a margin of 18.447 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in the Blue superstate by a margin of 15.6372 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Arizona by a margin of 10.2014 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Colorado by a margin of 8.533 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Florida by a margin of 4.8553 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Georgia by a margin of 1.6575 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Nevada by a margin of 4.4989 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in New Hampshire by a margin of 5.6965 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in North Carolina by a margin of 0.03269 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Ohio by a margin of 2.5447 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Pennsylvania by a margin of 8.7672 percentage points.
We forecast a Republican outcome in Utah by a margin of 11.2326 percentage points.
We forecast a Democratic outcome in Wisconsin by a margin of 3.0385 percentage points.
 

Our forecast vote margins for each state or superstate for the senatorial races